米国の不良債権処理は進み、８０％の損失を計上済み。ヨーロッパはまだ６２％しか処理をしていないとのこと。米国の場合、ＦＲＢに損失を押し付けている話であり、何れは、ＦＲＢがその損失を処理せざるを得なくなる。IMF slashes bank loan loss and provisions estimates
The IMF has revised down its estimates for the global banking sector’s loan losses and provisions from the credit crisis. A US$533-billion reduction to US$2.276-trillion represents a significant revision from the IMF’s previous estimate published just six months ago.
The IMF data also showed that U.S. and U.K. banks are the most advanced in the cycle, with close to 80% of the estimated write-downs already realized, notes National Bank chief economist and strategist, Stéfane Marion. That compares to 62% in the Euro area.
“The improving economic cycle has helped bolster capital to the point where the IMF expects the remaining writedowns or provisions to be mostly covered by earnings for the aggregate banking system,” Mr. Marion told clients.
However, while the asset side of bank balance sheets is improving, the IMF noted that the liability side may come under increasing pressure in coming months.
Increased earnings and private investment have allowed banks to make substantial improvements to their capital positions. At the same time an improved asset picture leads to less pressure in terms of boosting capital buffers to absorb potential loan and security losses.
However, the IMF cautioned that authorities are likely to strengthen bank capital and liquidity requirements to increase the safety of the financial system. It also noted that banks need to refinance nearly US$5-trillion in debt that will mature in the next three years.
“This will coincide with heavy government issuance and follow the removal of central bank emergency measures,” the report said.
The IMF warned that the overall picture masks problem areas, including some regional banks with heavy real estate exposure in the United States, heavy exposure to real estate development loans in the Spanish banking, and in some regional banks in Germany.
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